Srinagar April 09: What should be a cause of concern, experts have predicted second COVID-19 wave to peak between April 15 and worse than last year in India.
Scientists, including Prof. Manindra Agrawal from the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur, applied the model to predict the trajectory of the current surge in infections and found that the number of daily new infections was likely to peak in mid-April for this ongoing pandemic wave.
Prof. Agrawal in the IIT’s Department of Computer Science and Engineering, was involved with the national ‘super model’ initiative, and said that the peak is expected to see between 80,000-90,000 new infections per day.
“We will cross the peak (during April 15-20) and then there will be very a sharp drop over the next 15-20 days,” said Agrawal.
They have predicted after using a mathematical model that the ongoing second-wave of COVID-19 pandemic across the country may see a steep decline by the end of May.
During the first wave of Covid-19 infections across India, the mathematical approach, named ‘SUTRA’, predicted that the initial surge of infections in August would peak by September and lower in February 2021.
The national ‘super model’ had in October last year predicted the pandemic can be controlled by early 2021 with “minimal active symptomatic infections” in February.
“Second waves of pandemics have been harsher,” DAK President and influenza expert Dr Nisar ul Hassan told news agency Kashmir Indepth News Service (KINS).
“We have witnessed in the past how second wave of 1918 Spanish flu pandemic was deadlier than the first one. The first wave occurred in the spring which was relatively mild. A far deadlier second wave erupted in the fall months which infected 500 million and killed 50 million people globally.”
“Covid-19 is following the same suit,” DAK President said.
“The second waves of coronavirus in United States and Europe were uniformly worse than the first.”
“Kashmir is currently under the grip of a second wave and the cases are rising and hospitalizations too,” he said.
“And if countermeasures are not put in place, we could end up having a situation which could be worse than what we saw last year.”
“This is because vast majority of people in the valley are still susceptible to the virus and the virus will go where it is given room to run, and will find people who are vulnerable to infection,” Dr Nisar said.
“People have got pandemic fatigue. They are tired of restrictions, wearing masks, being away from family and friends, and increasingly fed up with the new normal routines.”
“They have thrown caution to the wind,” he said.
“Many people don’t wear masks and don’t care for social distancing.”
“This behavior would facilitate transmission of the virus that could reignite an outbreak,” said Dr Nisar.
“Another factor that could make the new wave worse is the emergence of new variants.”
“Some of the variants can make the virus more infectious, deadly, or even resistant to vaccines and treatment,” he said.
“We should not take much comfort from the fact that so far in the second wave, the incidents of severe cases and deaths are considerably lower than the first spike. The second wave is infecting young people in larger proportion than the first one. And, after a couple of weeks, many of them are likely to infect the elder members of their family and when that happens, serious illnesses and deaths will go up,” said Dr Nisar. With inputs from agencies (KINS)
Category: Union Territory
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Experts predict second COVID wave to peak between April 15-20 and worse than last year
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Hospitals Occupancy A Worry As Covid-19 Cases Surge
Steep rise in COVID-19 cases impacts availability of beds: Dr Naveed Nazir Shah
Srinagar, April 09: In a worrying development amid resurge in coronavirus cases, the bed occupancy of all dedicated hospitals has increased many folds.
Official sources told GNS that there are more than 90 patients admitted in the CD hospital including 14 travelers and nine tourists. All the 17 ICU beds in the hospital, one among the exclusive facilities for the management of the covid-19 patients, are already occupied, they said.
Chest Diseases Hospital Srinagar, as per officials has 104 covid-19 dedicated beds while among the 87 total isolation beds, 54 are occupied by the patients, 48 of whom are on oxygen support.
When contacted HOD CD Hospital Dr Naveed Nazir Shah, he told GNS that there has been in last few weeks a surge in the number of cases and admissions.
Our admissions have increased more than four to five times and our hospital is almost running full to capacity. Even in the ICU all the beds are occupied, Dr Naveed added.
In JLNM Hospital Srinagar, also among the exclusive facilities for covid-19 management, 24 beds are occupied while at SKIMS Soura, the tertiary care hospital, 83 out of 253 covid-19 dedicated beds are occupied while among 252 isolation beds, 81 are occupied with 70 patients on oxygen support.
Two days back DAK president Dr Nisar ul Hassan in a statement said that “Kashmir is currently under the grip of a second wave and the cases are rising and hospitalizations too,” he said.
“And if countermeasures are not put in place, we could end up having a situation which could be worse than what we saw last year.”
“This is because vast majority of people in the valley are still susceptible to the virus and the virus will go where it is given room to run, and will find people who are vulnerable to infection,” Dr Nisar said.
Across Jammu and Kashmir, the officials said there are 2739 “dedicated beds” available and 387 are occupied hitherto.
Officials said that though over 80 per cent of the total beds available are vacant across J&K, the cases are shooting up at a fast pace with 1647 cases registered in the two days alone with seven fatalities. The number of active cases stands at 5623—1688 in Jammu and 3935 in Kashmir.(GNS) -
IUST suspends offline class work till April 12
All the examinations scheduled till April 12 have been postponed, new dates shall be notified later separately.
Amid a surge in COVID-19 infections in Kashmir, Islamic University of Science and Technology (IUST), Awantipora Thursday suspended the physical class work at all the departments on the campus including Mantaqi Memorial College of Nursing and Medical Technology till April 12.
According to a notice issued by Deputy Registrar Academics of the University, “The offline class work in the University and Syed Mantaqi Memorial College of Nursing & Medical Technology shall remain suspended till 12-04-2021 with immediate effect.
However, online classes shall continue as per schedule or HODs may arrange additional online classes as per requirement during this period. Further, all the examinations scheduled upto the said date are postponed, new dates shall be notified separately,” the order added
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Second Covid-19 wave could be worse than first, warns DAK
Srinagar, Apr 07: With Kashmir valley facing second wave of Covid-19, Doctors Association Kashmir (DAK) on Wednesday warned that the new wave could be worse than the first.
“Second waves of pandemics have been harsher,” said DAK President and influenza expert Dr Nisar ul Hassan.
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“We have witnessed in the past how second wave of 1918 Spanish flu pandemic was deadlier than the first one. The first wave occurred in the spring which was relatively mild. A far deadlier second wave erupted in the fall months which infected 500 million and killed 50 million people globally.”
“Covid-19 is following the same suit,” DAK President said.
“The second waves of coronavirus in United States and Europe were uniformly worse than the first.”
“Kashmir is currently under the grip of a second wave and the cases are rising and hospitalizations too,” he said.
“And if countermeasures are not put in place, we could end up having a situation which could be worse than what we saw last year.”
“This is because vast majority of people in the valley are still susceptible to the virus and the virus will go where it is given room to run, and will find people who are vulnerable to infection,” Dr Nisar said.
“People have got pandemic fatigue. They are tired of restrictions, wearing masks, being away from family and friends, and increasingly fed up with the new normal routines.”
“They have thrown caution to the wind,” he said.
“Many people don’t wear masks and don’t care for social distancing.”
“This behavior would facilitate transmission of the virus that could reignite an outbreak,” said Dr Nisar.
“Another factor that could make the new wave worse is the emergence of new variants.”
“Some of the variants can make the virus more infectious, deadly, or even resistant to vaccines and treatment,” he said.
“We should not take much comfort from the fact that so far in the second wave, the incidents of severe cases and deaths are considerably lower than the first spike. The second wave is infecting young people in larger proportion than the first one. And, after a couple of weeks, many of them are likely to infect the elder members of their family and when that happens, serious illnesses and deaths will go up,” said Dr Nisar.
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J-K records 561 fresh COVID-19 cases, 2 more deaths
PTI
Srinagar: Jammu and Kashmir recorded 561 fresh COVID-19 cases on Tuesday that took its tally to 1,34,015, while two more fatalities pushed the death toll to 2,012, officials said.
Of the fresh cases, 384 were reported from the Kashmir division and 177 from the Jammu division, they said.
Srinagar district recorded the highest number of fresh cases at 222, including 63 travellers, followed by 99 in Jammu and 54 in Baramulla, according to the officials.
Budgam, Anantnag, Ganderbal, Kulgam, Udhampur and Kathy were the other districts that registered cases in double digits. Nine other districts recorded fresh cases in single digits while two did not report any new cases.
The number of active cases in Jammu and Kashmir stands at 4,483, while 1,27,520 patients have recovered so far, the officials said.
The two deaths were reported from the Kashmir valley, they said.
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Sgr Admin reviews Ramadan preparations
DC asks deptts to ensure uninterrupted power, water supply to people
Srinagar: The district Administration Srinagar on Monday held a meeting chaired by Deputy Commissioner (DC) Srinagar Mohammad Aijaz Asad regarding the arrangements to be put in place for the upcoming holy month of Ramadan.
During the meeting, DC Srinagar as per the news agency—Kashmir News Observer (KNO) directed the concerned departments for ensuring essential services like Water supply, Power, Ration, improving sanitation and strict check on quality and rates of essentials in the markets in the holy month.
Deputy Commissioner also directed the concerned departments to intensify market checking to keep a check on overcharging and illegal profiteering.
During the meeting, the DC also directed the concerned authorities to make proper arrangements of street lights and make sure that dysfunctional lights are made functional.
He asked Srinagar Municipal Corporation (SMC) to intensify sanitation operations and ensure cleanliness in and around the mosques and shrines.
Those who attended the meeting include SMC Commissioner Athar Amir Khan, SSP Headquarters Srinagar Majid Khan,
CEO Muslim Waqf Board Srinagar, Additional Deputy Commissioner, Regional Transport Officer Kashmir, SSP Traffic City and other officials.
DC also issued directions for setting up of a dedicated control Room to address any public grievances related to basic amenities during the holy month—(KNO)
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Public Transport poses serious threat to passengers, as Covid-19 SoPs go for a toss
Will intensify drive in enforcing the guidelines in public vehicles: RTO Kashmir; ADC Sgr issues warning to passengers, drivers
Before being getting penalised follow the Appropriate Covid Behaviour appeals Dr. Balkhi, Additional Deputy Commissioner Srinagar, says won’t hesitate in slapping fine
Srinagar: Public transport in Srinagar and elsewhere in Kashmir is posing a serious threat to passengers as Covid-19 SoPs are going for a toss forcing the authorities to issue a serious warning for passengers and drivers. The Srinagar administration has also warned of slapping a fine on the passengers and drivers, who are found violating the Covid-19 guidelines.
Kashmir News Observer (KNO) spoke to a number of passengers who frequently travel in public vehicles including Sumos and Traveras, and came to know that one among 10 passengers use face mask during travel while others prefer not to use the face masks.
“Simply, Covid guidelines are going for a big toss in Kashmir. People are least bothered about Covid resurgence in Valley, especially Srinagar which is worst hit. This is strange. People are travelling without face masks and there is no monitoring at all,” said Shazia Bashir, who travels regularly to her office in Srinagar from Pampore area. Other frequent travelers echoed similar views and demanded a monitoring mechanism by the transport department or the district administration.
Regional Transport Officer (RTO) Kashmir, Ikram-Ullah Tak, while speaking with the KNO said, “we have already deputed our squads to check the Covid -19 Sops violation and fines have also been imposed on the violators.”
He further said the District Administration Srinagar has already constituted the teams in which “our teams are also part of it and jointly with the magistrates we are doing routine checks to make sure the Covid-19 sops are adhered while using the public Transport.”
He said that in coming days, the drive for the strict enforcement of the Covid-19 SoPs in public transport will be intensified and those found violating will be dealt with strictly.
Interestingly, Covid guidelines read: “Individuals must maintain a base distance of six feet (2 Gaz ki Dori) in public places”. However, this is hardly seen on ground.
Additional Deputy Commissioner Srinagar Dr. Syed Haneef Balkhi said that the Covid-19 SoPs and guidelines are already in place and they have been repeatedly asking people associated with trade or transport, to adhere to the guidelines, and before that people are being penalized for violating the Covid-19 guidelines.
“I appeal people to show a responsible approach and follow Covid-19 guidelines in spirit,” he said. “We conduct random sampling and inspection also in and around the city. People found violating the Covid-19 guidelines are being fined, wearing of masks and maintaining of physical distance at public places is what is need of the hour,” he said—(KNO)
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National Commission for Women creates separate cell for J-K, Ladakh
PTI
Jammu: The National Commission for Women has created a separate cell to deal with issues in the Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh.
In a statement, it said the special cell will deal with complaints received from the two Union territories and will also look into the development activities related to women of these regions.
The panel decided to set up a separate cell for these regions after NCW Chairperson Rekha Sharma visited Jammu and Kashmir in February where she had held interactive sessions with NGOs, one-stop centres for women and other officials in the union territory to take stock of problems faced by women there.
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Kashmir’s houseboat industry dying, number reduced to 910 from 1600 in 3 decades
Kashmir: Houseboats which are part of Kashmir’s rich culture and often referred as jewel of valley’s tourism are dying fast.
Houseboats made of wood are also called floating palaces on various water bodies of Kashmir including Dal Lake, Nigeen Lake and River Jehlum.However, over the years, their number has reduced to 910 from 1600 in 1990 as their owners could not do their repairs in time. In the last eight months, more than 10 houseboats sank in waters of Dal Lake.
Mohammad Sharif, a houseboat owner said there is a ban on repairing of houseboats or building new ones. “These houseboats have been built more than 50 years ago and are decaying with each passing day. But we are not allowed to repair them resulting in their number having gone down to 910. If this continues, then you won’t find any houseboat after a decade as most houseboats are in bad shape and need immediate repairing,” Sharif told news agency Kashmir Indepth News Service (KINS).
In 2009, Jammu and Kashmir High Court banned repairs and renovation of houseboats after the government told the court that houseboats were the main source for pollutants of water bodies in Srinagar.
Since then, more than 250 cases seeking permission for houseboat repair are pending with the Tourism Department Jammu and Kashmir, sources say.
Bashir Ahmad, another houseboat owner, said the government was blaming inhabitants of Dal Lake for its deteriorating conditions. “There are lakhs of people living around the Dal Lake besides hundreds of hotels. All the sewage emanating from hotels and houses directly flows into the lake. They why only blame houseboat owners who are just in a small number,” Ahmad said.
“Our houseboats need immediate repair otherwise they all will sink. We are losing our identity,” Ahmad said.
He said it was the responsibility of everyone to keep the lake clean.“At least 44.2 million litres of sewage goes into Dal Lake every day from its peripheries. Less than one percent sewage is generated from houseboats. Why are only houseboat owners blamed for deteriorating the lake?” he asked.
Houseboat interiors are designed with wood-carved walls, with Kashmiri woven carpets giving a cultural touch to the whole ambience.The houseboats are of different sizes, some having up to four bedrooms apart from a living room and kitchen. Each room costs between Rs 2000 to Rs 8000 to tourists depending upon the facilities in the room. The value of a houseboat is between Rs 2 to Rs 3 crore.
An official of Lakes and Waterways Development Authority, said more than Rs 1000 crore have been spent for preservation of Dal Lake in the last 15 years.
He said government recently approved a policy for sustainable operation of houseboats in Dal and Nigeen Lakes.
According to the policy recently approved by Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha-led administration, the houseboats are required to be registered online subject to the fulfilment of various conservation parameters; within 30 days from the date notification of the policy.
The policy includes provisions for undertaking repairs on damaged, dilapidated and abandoned houseboats.
“The houseboats and associated structures are required to be fitted with bio-digesters for scientific treatment of solid/liquid waste as per the approved design of the Lakes and Waterways Development Authority, besides ensuring availability of adequate fire safety equipment along with trained staff to be verified by Fire & Emergency Services Department,” the policy says.
Further, the policy lays down regulations for ancillary facilities like kitchen, lodging, furniture, first-aid, electricity, power back-up, sanitary fittings and shikara for navigation. (KINS)
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“Ihsaan-ul-Haq Khanday” Militant associate held in Baramulla
PTI
Srinagar: Security forces arrested a militant associate of The Resistance Front (TRF) in Jammu and Kashmir’s Baramulla district, police said on Monday.
A checkpoint was established by the security forces at Model Town crossing of Sopore in the north Kashmir district following specific information, a police official said.
Ihsaan-ul-Haq Khanday, linked with the TRF, was arrested. Khanday is a resident of Sopore, but presently living in Nowpora Kalan. Incriminating material, including a letter pad of the banned outfit, was recovered from his possession, according to the official.
A case has been registered and an investigation is in progress, the official said, adding that more arrests were expected.