Srinagar: Interpretation of the available data indicates that another spell of snowfall and rains is likely across Jammu & Kashmir between November 11 and 14.
A mid-altitude Subtropical Westerly Jet (SWJ), commonly referred to as Western Disturbance in Jammu & Kashmir, is likely to approach J&K on November 10.
Significantly, this is the second major Subtropical Westerly Jet (SWJ) to strike J&K in three weeks time. Such frequent Western Disturbances in November month are unusual, if not unprecedented.
An expert at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society told Ziraat Times that such frequent early Subtropical Westerly Jet (SWJ) ‘may be a result of weak El Nino impact this fall and winter.’
Analysis of the probable wind direction, surface and atmospheric temperature in Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan region, north-east Afghanistan, likely cloud density and orographic effect by Ziraat Times suggests varied snowfall activity in Kashmir, Ladakh and mountainous parts of Jammu provinces during November 11 and 14.
Likely charge variations between the aerosols in the Kashmir valley (mostly due to smoke in its atmosphere) and the natural charge of the orographic effect may result in extensive lightening and thunder, resulting in heavier snowfall in Pirpanjal, Outer Himalayas range between Gund-Baltal areas, Zojila Pass and Zanasar-Kishtwar and Doda belt.
Outlook for Kashmir plains
In Kashmir plains, widespread snowfall activity is likely on Monday and Tuesday. While most of the plains, including Karewa areas, to begin with, are likely to receive rainfall, snowfall activity is not ruled out during this period.
Ziraat Times will issue a revised outlook on Friday with more specific expected conditions in Kashmir valley plains during the coming week.
Outlook for Jammu region
Significant snowfall activity is likely in upper areas of Poonch, Kishtwar, Bhaderwah, Reasi, Doda and Udhampur starting Monday and Tuesday.
Ziraat Times will issue a revised outlook on Friday with more specific expected conditions in Jammu plains.
Outlook for Ladakh region
Significant snowfall activity starting Monday in Kargil and Zanaskar areas. Ziraat Times will issue a revised outlook on Friday with more specific expected conditions.
Outlook for Pirpanjal, including Gulmarg
Snowfall is likely to start on Sunday, 10th November evening or early morning of Monday, 11th November, and will continue until Wednesday, albeit with some breaks.
The main snowfall activity, due to the accelerated orographic effect across the Pirpanjal range, would be on 13 and 14th November.
Outlook for Zojila-Sonamarg areas
Significant snowfall activity is likely in Zojila-Sonamarg areas starting 10th November. Main snowfall is likely to happen between 12 and 14 November in this area.
While this forecast is valid for short and medium term, some enlarged snowfall activity is not ruled out in this Himalayan area November 25 onwards.
Ziraat Times