{"id":23667,"date":"2020-04-13T18:05:17","date_gmt":"2020-04-13T12:35:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kashmir.today\/lockdown-may-cost-%e2%82%b97-8-lakh-crore-to-indian-economy\/"},"modified":"2020-04-13T18:05:17","modified_gmt":"2020-04-13T12:35:17","slug":"lockdown-may-cost-%e2%82%b97-8-lakh-crore-to-indian-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kashmir.watch\/?p=23667","title":{"rendered":"Lockdown may cost \u20b9 7-8 lakh crore to Indian economy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

All India Motor Transport Congress secretary-general Naveen Gupta said the accumulated losses to truckers during the first 15 days of lockdown were about \u20b935,200 crore given an average \u20b92,200 loss to per truck per day.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

PTI<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The lockdown that shut a majority of the factories and businesses, suspended flights, stopped trains and restricted movement of vehicles and people, may have cost the Indian economy \u20b97-8 lakh crore during the 21-day lockdown period, analysts and industry bodies said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the intent to contain the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19), Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with effect from March 25 announced, a nationwide complete lockdown that brought as much as 70% of economic activity, investment, exports and discretionary consumption to a standstill. Only essential goods and services such as agriculture, mining, utility services, some financial and IT services and public services were allowed to operate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stating that the pandemic came at the most inopportune time for India whose economy was showing signs of recovery after bold fiscal\/monetary measures, Centrum Institutional Research said the country again stares at the possibility of low single-digit growth for FY2021 (April 2020 to March 2021).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNationwide complete lockdown is likely to shave off at least \u20b97-8 trillion,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, Acuite Ratings & Research Limited estimated that the lockdown will cost the Indian economy almost USD 4.64 billion (over \u20b935,000 crore) every day and the entire 21-day lockdown will result in a GDP loss of almost USD 98 billion (about \u20b97.5 lakh crore).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rapid spread of COVID-19 has not only disrupted the global economy but also triggered a partial shutdown in many parts of India from early March and an almost complete shutdown from March 25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhile the countrywide shutdown is scheduled to be lifted from April 15, 2020, the risks of prolonged disruption in economic activities exist depending on the intensity of the outbreak,\u201d the credit rating agency said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sectors that are most severely impacted are transport, hotel, restaurant, and real estate activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to detail the post-lockdown scenario in an address to the nation on Tuesday morning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All India Motor Transport Congress (AIMTC) secretary-general Naveen Gupta said the accumulated losses to truckers during the first 15 days of lockdown were about \u20b935,200 crore given an average \u20b92,200 loss to per truck per day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cMore than 90% of about one crore trucks in the country are off roads during the lockdown as truckers with only essential commodities are on the move,\u201d he said. \u201cEven if the lockdown is lifted, it will take at least 2 to 3 months for truckers to limp to some normal scale as we apprehend consumption of non-essential items to remain hit on the account of lack of purchasing power.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AIMTC represents about 93 lakh transporters and truckers and is their umbrella body. National Real Estate Development Council – a body of realtors, puts the loss in the sector at \u20b91 lakh crore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI am scared to estimate what the losses would be. I think, a potential loss of maybe \u20b91 lakh crore on a conservative basis on an all India basis. It is a conservative figure. I cannot think of the upper end of the figure\u2026 Based on thumb rule, at least \u20b91 lakh crore,\u201d said its president Niranjan Hiranandani.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Confederation of All India Traders estimates that the losses incurred by the retail trade of the country in the second half of March due to the COVID-19 pandemic were a massive USD 30 billion. The Indian retail sector comprising 70 million small medium and big traders employing 45 crore people, does a monthly business of approximately USD 70 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A host of international agencies have cut India\u2019s economic growth estimate for FY21 on concerns about the fallout of COVID-19 outbreak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

World Bank on Sunday said India\u2019s economy is expected to grow 1.5% to 2.8% in 2020-21 fiscal which started on April 1. This will be the slowest growth rate recorded since the economic reforms of 1991.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Asian Development Bank (ADB) sees India\u2019s economic growth slipping to 4% in FY21, while S&P Global Ratings has further slashed its GDP growth forecast for the country to 3.5% from a previous downgrade of 5.2%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fitch Ratings puts its estimate for India growth at 2% while India Ratings & Research has revised its FY21 forecast to 3.6% from 5.5% earlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moody\u2019s Investors Service has slashed its estimate of India\u2019s GDP growth during the 2020 calendar year to 2.5%, from an earlier estimate of 5.3% and said the coronavirus pandemic will cause unprecedented shock to the global economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Acuite Ratings believes there is a risk of a contraction of April-June (2020-21 fiscal) GDP to the extent of 5-6%, with Q2 (July-September) also likely to post modest growth in a best-case scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It expects the overall GDP growth for 2020-21 to be in the band of 2-3% which takes into account a significant economic revival in the second half of the financial year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe have cut our GDP estimates for FY21 from 5.2% to 3.1% and believe that too will be back-ended,\u201d Centrum Institutional Research said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

All India Motor Transport Congress secretary-general Naveen Gupta said the accumulated losses to truckers during the first 15 days of lockdown were about \u20b935,200 crore given an average \u20b92,200 loss to per truck per day. PTI The lockdown that shut a majority of the factories and businesses, suspended flights, stopped trains and restricted movement of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":23666,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23667","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-national"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kashmir.watch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23667","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kashmir.watch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kashmir.watch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kashmir.watch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kashmir.watch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=23667"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kashmir.watch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23667\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kashmir.watch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=23667"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kashmir.watch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=23667"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kashmir.watch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=23667"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}